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Institutional Fair Value for
Crypto Perpetual Markets

Traditional equity markets close at 4pm.
Crypto synthetic equity perps trade 24/7.

Get institutional-grade fair value when Bloomberg terminals go dark.

Trusted by AI trading bots, market makers, and crypto hedge funds trading SPY-PERP, QQQ-PERP, TSLA-PERP, and other synthetic equity perpetuals.

The Problem

The 24/7 Fair Value Problem

Crypto synthetic equity perpetuals (SPY-PERP, QQQ-PERP, TSLA-PERP) trade around the clock across Hyperliquid, Avantis, Aevo, Drift, and Vertex.

But institutional fundamentals only exist during market hours (9:30am-4pm ET, Mon-Fri).

Traditional Markets

2:00 AM Sunday
NYSE
CLOSED
NASDAQ
CLOSED
Bloomberg Terminal
OFFLINE
Institutional Desks
CLOSED
Analyst Coverage
DARK
🤖Your trading bot: Flying blind
🕐
2:00 AM Sunday
Your bot is trading

Crypto Perpetuals

24/7 Trading
SPY-PERP
$585.80LIVE
QQQ-PERP
$432.15LIVE
TSLA-PERP
$248.30LIVE

Without a fundamental anchor, you're trading against orderbook noise:

  • → Overpay during thin liquidity
  • → Miss mean-reversion opportunities
  • → Get liquidated on event-driven moves
  • → Can't distinguish rich vs cheap

Traditional markets have institutional infrastructure.
Crypto perps have been guessing.
Until now.

The Solution

Institutional Fundamentals, 24/7

SigmaGrid applies traditional equity derivatives models to crypto perpetual markets, providing the fundamental anchor that's been missing from DeFi.

📊

Fair Value Anchors

Real-time institutional fair value for SPY, QQQ, IWM (indices) and TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, META, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT (MAG7).

Based on:
  • Based on equity market fundamentals
  • Volatility surface modeling
  • Macro sensitivity coefficients
  • Drift and regime analysis
Updated every second, even when traditional markets are closed.
🔍

Cross-Venue Intelligence

Track pricing across all major venues: Hyperliquid, Avantis, Aevo, Drift, Vertex.

Based on:
  • Which venue is mispricing vs fair value
  • Premium compression opportunities
  • Funding-adjusted arbitrage
  • Divergence z-scores (cross-venue spread)
Spot inefficiencies before the market corrects.
⚠️

Event Risk Protection

Automated suppression triggers for high-impact events: FOMC rate decisions, CPI/inflation releases, quarterly earnings, geopolitical shocks.

Based on:
  • Event countdown timers
  • Expected impact classification
  • Directional bias (risk-on/risk-off)
  • Volatility forecasts (1h, 4h, overnight)
Trade smarter around macro catalysts.
How It Works

Four Layers of Intelligence

Institutional Equity Models Applied to Crypto Perps

We don't trade crypto perpetuals ourselves. We model the underlying equities using institutional-grade infrastructure, then project fair value onto 24/7 perp markets.

What you get:

  • Fair value estimate (not just mid-price)
  • Volatility forecasts (1h, 4h, overnight windows)
  • Drift estimates (directional bias)
  • Regime classification (trend, chop, high-vol, low-vol)
  • Macro sensitivity (beta to rates, dollar, vol index)

Why it matters:

At 3am on Saturday, SPY-PERP might trade at $586 due to thin liquidity. Our fair value stays anchored at $585.20 (based on Friday's close, futures pricing, and overnight macro moves). You get a reference point when no one else has one.

Cross-Venue Arbitrage Opportunities

Crypto perp venues don't share liquidity. This creates persistent mispricings.

Example:

Hyperliquid SPY-PERP:$585.1015bp cheap
Avantis SPY-PERP:$585.6035bp rich
Our fair value:$585.25anchor

Mean-reversion opportunity: 50bp spread

We calculate:

  • Premium/discount per venue (vs fair value)
  • Divergence z-score (historical context)
  • Mean-reversion probability
  • Funding-adjusted expected returns

Trade the inefficiency, not the noise.

Know When NOT to Trade

Not all market conditions are tradeable.

We classify real-time market regime:

Trend
Strong directional momentum
Chop
Mean-reverting range
High-volatility
Elevated risk, widen stops
Low-volatility
Tight ranges, reduce size

Plus structural stress indicators:

  • Microstructure breakdown (orderbook degradation)
  • Transition probability (regime about to shift?)
  • Shock index (elevated tail risk)

Suppression triggers auto-flag: 'Market conditions unsuitable for systematic strategies. Recommended action: reduce exposure.'

Protecting capital is alpha.

Simple Integration, Pay-Per-Use

No subscriptions. No minimums. No lock-in.

GET
/signals/{ticker}
Returns: fair_value, vol_forecast, drift, regime, premiums, divergence
GET
/premium/{ticker}
Returns: per-venue premium, z-score, mean-reversion probability
GET
/arbitrage/{ticker}
Returns: funding-adjusted basis, expected carry, macro-adjusted premium

Authentication: Authentication: x402 micropayments

Cost: Cost: $0.0001 - $0.01 per query (depending on endpoint)

Integration time: Integration time: <5 minutes

Language support: Language support: Any HTTP client (Python, Node, Rust, etc.)

Use Cases

Who Uses SigmaGrid

🤖

AI Trading Bots

Challenge:

Your bot trades SPY-PERP at 2am on Sunday. Is $585.80 a good entry, or are you buying into noise?

Solution:

Query SigmaGrid fair value: $585.20 → You're 60bp rich → Wait for mean-reversion → Save 60bp on entry

Typical usage:100-1,000 queries/day
Cost:$10-100/month
ROI:5-10bp per trade improvement
📊

Market Makers

Challenge:

Provide liquidity across multiple venues. Need accurate pricing to avoid adverse selection.

Solution:

Use SigmaGrid fair value as pricing anchor: → Quote bid/ask around institutional FV → Detect when one venue is stale → Adjust spreads during high-vol regimes

Typical usage:10,000+ queries/day
Cost:$100-1,000/month
ROI:Tighter spreads, lower inventory risk
🏦

Crypto Hedge Funds

Challenge:

Build systematic strategies on synthetic equity perps. Need high-quality data for backtesting.

Solution:

Access full historical data: → Fair value time series (12+ months) → Regime classifications → Divergence events → Event impact analysis

Typical usage:Research + live trading
Cost:Enterprise tier ($1K-10K/month)
ROI:Proprietary strategy development
💼

Portfolio Managers

Challenge:

Monitor multi-venue perp exposure 24/7. Need alerts for risk events.

Solution:

Set up monitoring dashboards: → Real-time fair value vs positions → Event countdown timers → Regime transition alerts → Cross-venue divergence warnings

Typical usage:Dashboards + API integration
Cost:Custom pricing
ROI:Better risk management, fewer surprises
Proof

Built by Quants, For Quants

"Crypto perpetual markets needed what traditional equities have had for decades: institutional-grade fundamentals. We built it."

Team Backgrounds:

  • → Elite university
  • → 20+ years in equity derivatives at global investment banks
  • → Built systematic market-making infrastructure for institutional flow
  • → Expertise in volatility modeling, microstructure, and quantitative strategies
  • → Built and operated across Layer 1s and DeFi protocols
  • → Multiple shipped products across crypto infrastructure

Why we built this:
Our team spans institutional TradFi and crypto-native DeFi. Crypto perps had no fundamental anchor. Bots were trading blind. So we bridged the gap with institutional-grade fair value models.

Live Performance Metrics

Updated Hourly

Fair Value Accuracy (6-Month Rolling)

Naive Baseline
0.0%
SigmaGrid FV
0.0%
✓ Win rate vs naive baseline:67.3%
✓ Average edge:5.2 basis points
✓ Sample size:14,847 predictions

Largest edge during:

Off-hours:8.1bp average
Weekends:9.3bp average
Event windows:12.7bp average

Methodology:
We compare our fair value vs simple cross-venue mid-price averaging. For each prediction, we measure which estimate was closer to the actual price 1-hour and 4-hours later.

All metrics are publicly auditable.

pricing.config

Pay Per Query (x402 Protocol)

Pay-per-use via x402 micropaymentsNo subscriptions. No minimums. No hidden fees.

You only pay for what you use. Stop anytime.
x402 micropayments mean you're charged per API call.

📊
CORE

Signals

Master consolidated view

/v1/signals/{ticker}
~$0.05/req
  • fair_value
  • regime
  • drift_1h
  • vol_forecast
  • event_context
MOST FLEXIBLE
SPECIALIZED

Specialized Views

Focused data surfaces

/v1/drift
/v1/regime
/v1/events
/v1/premium
/v1/arbitrage
~$0.02-0.05/req
  • Directional bias
  • Risk sizing
  • Macro events
  • Arbitrage metrics
🚀
BULK

Bulk Access

Multi-ticker and historical

/v1/snapshot
/v1/historical
Varies/req
  • Multi-ticker snapshots
  • Historical time series
  • Volume-based pricing
FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Start Trading with Institutional Signals

📊

See It Live

View our public monitoring dashboard:

Real-time accuracy metrics
Fair value predictions vs outcomes
Cross-venue divergence heatmap
Sample data • No signup required.
View Dashboard →
📖

Read the Docs

Complete API documentation:

Endpoint reference
Code examples (Python, Node, Rust)
Integration guides
Best practices
5-minute integration.
API Documentation →